Archive for category Stocks Mutual Funds

Whitewater Stock Market

Ever done any whitewater rafting or canoeing? Long periods of tranquil river followed by short periods of terror. Suddenly the water grips your vessel and you are pushed and shoved by massive currents over which you have no control. Missing boulders you paddle as hard as you can. You almost lose everything and think to yourself, “Why didn’t I portage that last rapid”

Remind you of the stock market lately? Nice steady up moves of equity growth in your portfolio followed by gut-wrenching waterfalls when the market takes back most of your gains.

You got into that canoe because you wanted to. Did you have any lessons on how to control the ride or when it might be a good idea to portage? Maybe you didn’t or maybe you got the wrong lesson. You didn’t want to crash or drown.

The same goes for the stock market. You might have read a book on how to invest your money or worse yet you might have received information from a broker or financial planner whose reason for helping you is based on commission. If you are a small account don’t plan on getting much ?help?.

Brokers are not taught how to make money. They are taught to make recommendations that will not get them sued if you lose your money. The basic Wall Street tenet of Buy and Hold is totally wrong. Unfortunately, even the brokers believe it. When you have a stock or mutual fund that is going down they never tell you to sell ? ?you are in for the long haul?. WRONG. Of 33,000 stock recommendations last year only 127 were ‘sells?. After stocks have declined 50% they tell you to “hold”. You know where. Brokerage companies do not want to offend the corporate executives and mutual fund managers; they seem to have forgotten who is paying them.

When you are whitewater rafting you had better know how to guide yourself through or around the rapids to the calm water. When you invest in the market you must learn the first basic rule ? protect your capital ? so you won’t crash and lose all you have worked for. In canoeing it means learning when to paddle or portage. With investing it means learning when to sell, be in cash and out of the market. Know when to hold em, know when to fold em.

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A Guide to Mutual Funds

If you’ve been thinking about getting into investment but aren’t sure what you should invest in, you might want to consider looking into investments in mutual funds. These funds are designed to provide a diverse investment opportunity for the shareholders who have purchased shares in the fund. They can be used as an easy way to create a diverse investment portfolio, or they can be used to accent your own portfolio with securities that have been chosen by the creator of the mutual fund.

The information below is designed to help you decide whether mutual funds are right for you, and includes more details of what mutual funds are, what sets them apart from other types of investments, and how to find the mutual funds that will best accent your investment style.

Defining Mutual Funds

Before you can decide whether or not to invest in mutual funds, you need to know exactly what mutual funds are. These funds are a type of security that is traded on the stock market, enabling shareholders to purchase and sell shares in the funds as they choose. The money that is raised by the purchasing of shares by shareholders is utilized by the investment company that created the firm to purchase more shares of certain stocks, bonds, and other market securities and money market instruments.

As the value of the stocks, bonds, and other securities contained within the mutual fund rise and fall, the value of the fund itself fluctuates? the average value of each share of the mutual fund is determined each day as an average of the total value of all of the securities that are contained within the fund.

Because of this, shareholders who own part of a mutual fund are more directly involved with their investment than those who simply own individual securities and watch as they rise and fall.

Important Attributes of Mutual Funds

As was mentioned above, mutual funds are created by investment companies to purchase shares in various stocks and other securities. What this means for the mutual fund investor is that in addition to their ownership of shares of the mutual fund, they also have a limited claim of ownership of some of the securities contained within the mutual fund. In addition to this, mutual funds also benefit from having a built in system of diversification, as well as professional money management services that handle all of the money that is invested into the fund.

Shareholders are free to purchase additional shares or sell the shares that they already possess at any time, though the value of the shares fluctuates daily and therefore must be bought or sold with care so as to get the best value for the money.

Finding the Best Mutual Funds

Since the value of mutual funds varies from day to day, it can be difficult to find the funds that are best for your investment. Instead of tracking the funds as you would traditional stocks and securities, it’s often better to investigate the fund to determine which investment company is managing the fund and what specific securities are currently being held by the fund itself.

Finding a mutual fund that is managed by an investment company that has a strong record of choosing lucrative investments is a good sign that the fund might be a smart buy, and securities held within a fund that are consistent performers can help add stability and security to an investment that may seem otherwise unstable.

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Candlestick Patterns For Swing Traders

Candlestick charts are an effective way to study the emotions of other traders. Candlestick patterns provide a trader with a picture of human emotions that are used to make buy and sell decisions.

On a piece of paper, write down the following statement with a big black marker:

There is nothing on a chart that matters more than price. Everything else is secondary.

Take that piece of paper and tape it to the top of your monitor! I think too often swing traders get caught up in so many other forms of technical analysis that they miss the most important thing on a chart. You do not need anything else on a chart but candles to be a successful swing trader! There is nothing that can improve your trading more than learning the art of reading candlestick charts.

There are only two groups of people in the stock market. There are buyers and sellers. We want to find out which group is in control of the price action now. We use candles to figure that out. When stocks close at the bottom of the range we conclude that the sellers are in control. When stocks close at the top of the range we conclude that buyers are in control.

In the stock market, for every buyer there has to be a seller and for every seller there has to be a buyer. If a stock closes at the top of the range, this means that buyers were more aggressive and were willing to get in at any price. The sellers were only willing to sell at higher prices. This causes the stock to move up.

If a stock closes at the bottom of the range, this means that sellers were more aggressive and were willing to get out at any price. The buyers were only willing to buy at lower prices. This causes the stock to move down.

Where a stock closes in relation to the range tells us who is winning the war between buyers and sellers. This is the most important thing to know when reading candlestick charts. We can classify candles in two categories: wide range candles (WRC) and narrow range candles (NRC). Wide range candles state that there is high volatility (interest in the stock) and narrow range candles state that there is low volatility (little interest in the stock). Stocks tend to move in the direction of wide range candles.

The number one rule when reading candlestick charts is this: You want to buy a stock when nobody wants it and sell a stock when everybody wants it! This is the only way to consistently make money swing trading!

I know what you’re thinking. You thought this was going to be about hammers, doji’s, and shooting stars. Sorry to disappoint you, but knowing all of the different types of candlestick patterns is really not at all necessary once you understand why a candle represents the struggle between buyers and sellers.

Take the hammer candlestick pattern. What happened to make up this candle? The stock opened, then at some point the sellers took control of the stock and pushed it lower. But in the end, the buyers ?won the war? and had enough strength to close the stock at the top of the range.

When we are reading candlestick charts, why would we need to know the name of the pattern? What we do need to know is why the candle looks the way that it does rather than spending our time memorizing candlestick patterns!

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Lies, Damn Lies and Mutual Fund Returns

How many times has this happened to you? You’re at a social function and the conversation turns to investing. Pretty soon, people are comparing how well their investments are doing. As you might imagine, being an investment advisor this happens to me a lot. However, I recently had an experience with it that startled me.

Bob, one of the guys I was chatting with at a party, asked what kind of returns I had made for my clients with my methodical no load mutual fund strategy during the past year. I replied that they had unrealized gains of slightly over 29%, after management fees, for the 8 months that we were invested.

Bob countered with a smirk that he had made a 40% return. I raised my eyebrows and told him that was darn good?and suggested that maybe he ought to be managing my money. At that point we were interrupted and, as the evening went on, I began to wonder exactly how Bob had gotten his great return.

I cornered him a little later on and, upon digging a little deeper, the story looked somewhat different. Yes, he had made a 40% return on a mutual fund he had some money invested in, however, we were comparing apples and bananas.

He had a total portfolio of $100k. Being cautious, he had invested only $10k into a mutual fund, from which he profited $4k after he sold it. The balance of his portfolio ($90k) was sitting in a money market fund earning some 0.35% per year.

So, while he had made 40% on 10% of his investment, he had only made 4.35% on his whole portfolio. My methodology was also focused on protecting my clients’ investments and it had increased their entire portfolio 29% (unrealized). That would be an apple to apple comparison when measuring my returns against his. Bob’s one fund realized 40% return. However, had I approached it the same way Bob had, I could have described one of the funds I used that had realized over 49% for the same period.

Actually, Bob’s not-so-good-news story didn’t stop there. Bob admitted to having followed the losing Buy and Hope strategy through the bear market of 2000 and had finally sold out at a 50% loss a year ago, before committing $10k to a mutual fund investment.

I was pleased to be able to tell him that my methodology had gotten my clients out of the market before the bear took his big bite, and they suffered only minimal losses before finding safety in money markets accounts. And when my trend tracking figures directed us to move back into the market, they still had most of their money poised to start earning for them again?which it did and very nicely, thank you.

The moral of the story is to look past the surface and don’t take any numbers thrown at you at face value. Remember, most people returning from a weekend in Las Vegas will shout about their winnings and mumble about their losses.

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Investment Speed Bumps

Maybe you have done the same thing as I have. Been driving down an unfamiliar street at a good pace and suddenly been thrown into the air as the car hit a speed bump. You immediately slow down or even stop to put everything back together.

Kinda reminds me of trading in the stock market.

Going along nicely with a particular stocks or several positions when the market hits a ‘speedbump? and the bottom drops out. Suddenly you have a big loss instead of a profit. You pull over to the side of the road ? quit puttting more money in the market. Better check to see what the damage is.

How much have you lost and is it still bleeding from that terrible bumps?

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Stock Trading – Daddy, Why Aren’t We Rich?

One Saturday morning, while he was sitting at his computer studying the market, David’s 7 year old daughter came up, tugged at his shirt sleeve, and said, “Daddy, why aren’t we rich?” He looked his child in the eye, and thought to himself, what a great question – Why aren’t we rich?

As she stood there expectantly waiting for an answer, he struggled to come to terms with the realization that, although he had focused his complete attention on trying to create wealth for more than 10 years, he had never actually made any real headway.

He had bought and sold many Stocks and several properties over those years, but had never made any real money.

He looked at his daughter, and asked, ‘What makes you think we aren’t rich, darling?’

She looked at him and said, ‘Because you said that if we were rich, you and mom wouldn’t have to go to work any more, and you both still work all the time. You said we could live at the beach and play in the sand every day. I want to know what you are doing about that. When can we go and live at the beach?’

Nothing like a child to cut straight to the heart of the problem – and what was he doing about it?

‘We’re not rich because daddy made some mistakes,’ he finally answered. ‘What kind of mistakes, daddy,’ she asked. ‘Well, I bought some shares that were going down and then didn’t sell them soon enough. Then I bought some houses but sold them again.’ ‘Why?’ she asked.

He had to think about that. He had no reason to buy those shares in the first place. He had no reason to hold on to them when they kept going down. He had no reason to sell the properties either. Her logic was flawless – why?

He had to change his strategy.

He owed it to himself and his family to finally get his act together and make some changes – that was the day the pain of not living up to his potential made him sit down and write out his trading plan and his goals…his strategy and rules – his life raft.

He started by writing out his vision – what he wanted his life to look like when he became a successful trader and investor, then worked backwards from there – through the details of how he was going to achieve his dream.

He saw in his mind the 4 bedroom apartment on the beach, the red Ferrari 360 Modena, the plasma screen computer monitor in an office overlooking the surf beach 7 floors below, the family holidays in the Greek islands, the significant donations to worthwhile causes and children’s charities.

He visualized all the tremendous benefits of becoming a successful trader.

He realized that he was afraid of losing, and that fear was just too expensive to let it control his life any longer!

He decided that he would no longer accept anything less than full compliance with his trading plan.

He decided that he would take every trade entry signal and follow his trading plan as if his life depended on it.

As if, after each trade was closed out, he had to stand in front of a Panel of his trading Mentors, and explain his actions to them – why he entered where he did, where he placed his stop losses, why he exited when he did.

And if they weren’t convinced he followed the rules of successful trading, he would be taken out and shot!

This certainly focused his attention on only trading strong trends – trends where the price bars were trading above their respective moving averages for long trades, or below for short trades, and the Stock price was moving strongly in one direction.

He pretended that if he couldn’t justify his trading decisions to his trading Mentors, he was dead…

That was the day he resolved to study his selected group of Stocks, the ones that had a track record of trending strongly, every day. He would then take every trade his system produced, put his stop loss orders in the market as he entered each trade it a place where the trend had to change to take him out of the trade, and he would hold every position until the trend changed.

He would act ‘as if’ he was a great trader, even though his record up to that point had been less than inspiring…

That innocent question from a child turned out to be the start of David’s successful trading career.

He started to trade profitably and consistently for the first time in his life. He thought he was doing well, and indeed he was making money.

He knew from his wealthy mentors that rich people are different; they make rational decisions based on facts, not emotions. They understand the value of money – they respect it as a tool for building a better world. They buy well for logical reasons and hold until there is a valid reason to sell.

Then one day, he closed out a trade, and excitedly told his daughter, ‘Daddy made a big profit in the market today darling, come and look and see what I did.’

His daughter came over to the computer and looked at the screen as he excitedly showed her where he had bought a Stock and then sold for a $3000 profit. She looked at him and said, ‘But daddy, it’s still going up, why did you sell it?’

His smile faded as the power of that question sunk in…why had he sold it? What was he doing getting out of such a strongly trending Stock just to take a profit? What would his trading Mentors say?

She was right…the market was still open, so he bought back in again. He had never been able to bring himself to do that before – he was becoming a great trader!

The rally continued and he kept buying more as it rallied. The trend finally changed, but his profit on that trade, when he eventually got a valid sell signal, was $14500!

His daughter’s question 2 weeks earlier was worth over $11000!

That was the last time he ever got out of a trade based on his emotions. His fear of the market was gone – thanks to some simple questions from a 7 year old…

So now, it’s your turn. Whenever you are preparing to place a trade, find a small child, even if you have to borrow one, and ask them what the trend is. Then don’t trade the other way!

If your trading isn’t as great as you know it could be, decide to create a trading plan now that will become your life raft.

Remember, fear is just too expensive.

If you are afraid of losing money, reduce your position size until your fear goes away.

Once you have made a series of small profits, you will be trading with the markets money and you can increase you position size according to your growing confidence and account balance.

If you have a series of losses, reduce your position size again until you get back on the right track. Stick to your trading plan – whether it’s the one that Peter outlines for you on the website or something else you have tested by paper trading until you are confident that it works.

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Profit From A Falling Stock

There are several ways to profit from a falling stock, but for tonight we are going to discuss the two most basic principals, shorting stock versus buying \”put\” options.

If you have been with us for any length of time you know I have written many times about how to \”short\” a stock. Basically you are simply selling a stock now, taking in the cash for the sale, and \”buying back\” or covering the sale at a cheaper price. so if you \”short\” ABC at 60 dollars and you sold 1000 shares, you took in 60,000 dollars. Now if ABC falls to 50, and you \”Cover\” you are buying it back cheaper. In this case you will spend 50,000 dollars. The difference between where you sold and what you spent, 10 G\’s is your profit.

That really is as easy and as basic as it gets friends. Don\’t let all the talking heads throw you a curve ball, shorting is easy and its really no more risky than going long as long as you use stops to protect yourself. Since the market goes up and down, if you only play the long side, you are missing a lot of profit potential.

But there are problems with this approach. First you need a margin account to do it, all short sales are through margin. Second, it eats up a lot of your buying power because when you go short, you are holding that position with margin that will tie up your money.

The other play is a put option. Here again Wall Street has tried to buffalo the average investor into thinking options are for the big boys. What nonsense! Anyone can and should use call and put options as a trading strategy. The risk is limited, and the returns can be phenomenal because of the leveraging inherent in options. With a put option, you are placing a bet that the stock is going to fall. Win the bet and you will win big time. Lose the bet and just like Vegas, your loss is limited to how much you bet.

If the market is going to run up for a few weeks and then spiral back down, which way should you play? That is impossible to say, we don\’t know your style, your risk tolerance, your bank account balance etc. but for us it\’s an easy call, put options win out over shorting in a scenario like that.

By using put options we can use a relatively small amount of money to be in several \”plays\” and each of them could return several hundred percent returns. Look at it like this. If you short ABC at 100 and it falls to 60 fantastic! You made 40 points and 40%. But if you buy put options for 1.75 and they go to 10.00, what is the percentage there? Over 500%. And look at the cost. It\’s next to nothing, to get such a shot at big returns.

For our money, when the time is right, buying puts against the Dow Jones Industrials, the NASDAQ 100 and the Composite and select individual stocks that carry high P/E\’s will be the way to go as we feel those will be taken to the woodshed for a spanking.

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Writen By : Larry Potter

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