Posts Tagged commodities

How Commodity Trading Differs From Stock Trading

There are major differences between trading stocks and trading
futures. While stories of fortunes made or lost overnight on the futures markets are largely untrue, the futures trader, if using a sound trading system, can usually make more money on the futures market and make it much faster. However, if that trading system is not sound the trader can have greater losses.

This is because futures contracts are highly leveraged. Margins
(the deposit required) on futures contracts are much less than for stocks, as low as 3% on some futures contracts compared with up to 50% for stocks. As well, futures investors are not charged interest on the difference between the margin and the full contract value.

The margins for futures contracts act more as a performance bond or good faith deposit whereas the margin for stocks is more of a loan. Although the margin on futures contracts is quite small, it rides the full value of the underlying contract as that contract rises or falls, thus providing the leverage mentioned earlier.

Commissions charged by futures brokerages are normally much less than brokerage commissions for other investments.

Futures markets use the open outcry (auction type) method of
trading ensuring very public, fair, and efficient markets. Plus, it is much harder to trade on inside information as so many variables affect the markets. Also, futures markets are very liquid. Transactions can be completed quickly, which lowers the risk of adverse market moves

If you own stocks you are an owner of the company. This allows you to share in the company?s profits, and losses, through dividends, and increases or decreases in the stock?s value. It also gives you certain voting rights with the company. However, a company can go bankrupt, leaving you holding worthless stock.

When you buy and sell futures you are only entering into a contract and don?t really own anything. What you have is an agreement to buy a commodity or financial instrument (wheat or Treasury Bonds for example) at a specified price at a certain date in the future.

The person on the other side of the transaction has agreed to sell you that commodity or financial instrument at that specified price by the specified date. If you sell a futures contract prior to that date you have offset your position and have either a profit or loss on the trade.

The stock you bought 3 years ago is the same stock you can buy today. Futures contracts, on the other hand, have very limited lives. They are traded in a regular series of contract months referred to as delivery months.

Futures contracts have expiration dates after which no further trading for that month can take place. The September corn contract you traded last year is not the September corn contract you are trading this year. In fact last September?s corn contract no longer exists.

Many futures contract months of the same commodity trade simultaneously on the market, sometimes even years into the future. The current contract is called the front month and the other contracts are called the back months. They are called back months even though they are for future months.

For example, corn trades for the months of January, March, May, July, September, November and December. Suppose today?s date is August 4, 2000. The current contract month for corn would be September 2000 and so is called the front month. The months of November and December 2000, January 2001, March 2001, May 2001 and July 2001 are back months even though they are in the future and even flow into the next year.
(This may sound confusing but its not …really)

All of these months can be traded at the same time although most of the trading activity takes place in the front month.

When the current month expires the next contract month becomes the front month and so on.

Rob Hall is a successful futures trader, President

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A Simple Relationship To Put Money In Your Pocket

Every US based worker that has attended a 401K planning seminar has heard the same lecture. Diversify your money between US based Large, Mid and Small Cap stocks then mix in some International Stocks and Bonds. Your percent allocation to each sector will vary depending on your age. It must be sound advice if some many professionals agree on this approach. Most will follow this advice tweaking it every now and then. However, with a little more understanding you can outperform those advisors.

The objective of investing is to buy low and sell high which is not as easy as it sounds. At least in the stock part of your portfolio, it is slightly easier to do with your bond allocation. The key to bonds is interest rates. As interest rates go up, bond prices go down. As interest rates go down, bond prices go up. That is all the average investor needs to know about bonds.

Let?s say that you purchased a bond that was paying 3% interest and then interest rates increase to 3.5%. Why would a new investor buy your bond paying 3% – when a new one could be purchased that returned 3.5%? Thus, the only way to entice people to buy the 3% bond is to lower its price (rates goes up price goes down). Now the investor has a choice of buying the lower yielding bond at a lower price versus the new higher yielding bond at a higher price.

The Fidelity US Bond Fund (FBIDX) is available in many 401K plans. Its returns over the last 6 ? years is as follows:

 	          2000    2001       2002      2003     2004     2005    YTD 5/2006
 Total Return%    11.4     8.1       10.2      4.9      4.4       2.3     -0.8 

What happened to the returns? Interest rates were low in the first years of the decade; then the fed went on rate raising campaign that commenced in June of 2004. By knowing the relationship between bonds and interest rates, a savvy investor would act accordingly. Thus, bond allocations would increase in low interest rate environments and decrease in high interest rate environments. I bet you didn?t hear that in your 401K seminar.

Just a little financial education will carry you a long way and lead to better results. As we are nearing the end of the interest rate increases here is Bill Gross\’, often referred to as \”the Warren Buffett of the bond world,\” current position.

July 7 (Bloomberg) — Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co. and manager of the world\’s biggest bond fund, said the bear market in bonds is over. “The bond bear market is beginning to go into hibernation, which is the same thing as saying the bear market\’s over,\’\’ said Gross in a television interview from the firm\’s headquarters in Newport Beach, California. “It ended two days ago on Wednesday. While we\’re not about to reap huge capital gains, bonds will do better from here in terms of price.\’\’

As rates go down bond prices go up.

About the Author

Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company\’s mantra is \”Why trade time for money … when you can have both.\” Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

Make sure to read one of Dawson\’s most popular articles: \”The No-Brainer Investment Strategy to Double Digit Returns\”

Writen By : Michael Dawson

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Wealth Building – Through Commodity Investing

In my recent article, The No-brainer Investment Strategy to Double Digit Returns, I opined that there is a 34 year cycle in the stock market. A 17 year bull market is followed by a 17 year bear market and that equities and commodities are inversely correlated. Based on this premise, a strategy could be devised in which equities and commodities are alternately invested during its appropriate time during the cycle. I also stated that the last equities bull market from 1982-200 ended with the bursting of the internet bubble and that we are now 5 years into the commodity up-cycle. Finally, I offered research to support this position and results through 2005. So, how is this theory performing over the first six months of 2006?

As of 7/14/2006:

DOW 0.2%

S

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Financial Freedom: Saying Goodbye To The Time For Money Swap

Before we address the issue at hand, let

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There Is A Certain

If you have read some of my past articles, you are familiar with my definition of financial freedom. It is freedom to focus on what is truly important to you and your family without trading time for a wage. It is enabled by a portfolio of income producing assets managed by you. In other words, your rental properties or eBay business pays the bills. It is not retirement or jet-setting around the world without any concerns. Although it is not those fantasies, I believe it is the next best thing. It definitely beats punching a clock. What do you think? Don?t answer to quickly. To give up the security provided by a job, not matter how good or bad, requires a certain ?something? that is hard to comprehend. If you hate your job you might be willing to give it a try, but if you like your job ? forget about it. Why take on the uncertainty? If you fail, you will feel stupid for giving up on that great job that is no longer available.

Well, I had not only a good job, but a great one. Made tons of money, worked with great people, traveled the US and Canada ? played golf with customers; dined at fine restaurants. So, why did I leave? I am still searching for the best words to explain it, but guess what ? that was not the first time I quit a job. The first time I quit a good job, not a great one; so that was a little easier. However, when my business failed and I went back to corporate America ? I didn?t feel stupid, a little poorer, but far from stupid. I learned more about myself and what I wanted in life by that experience than possible in any other manner.

That experience gave me the confidence to walk away from a great job.

About the Author

Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company\’s mantra is \”Why trade time for money … when you can have both.\” Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

Make sure to read one of Dawson\’s most popular articles: \”Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap\”

Writen By : Michael Dawson

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The Commodities Bull Market Is Back

It was just a few short months ago many were saying the bubble had burst in commodities. First of all, I never bought into the bubble talk. How can there be a bubble in commodities – when not one of your friends can name 5 gold stocks? Back in the internet bubble days, taxi cab drivers could rattle off the names of internet companies without skipping a beat. Before there can be a bubble the masses must participate.

The commodity bull market is being driven by simple supply and demand dynamics. Just think about the amount of copper that will be consumed as China industrializes. Mass industrialization takes many years. Everyone knows that Rome wasn?t built in a day and China will be no different.

What the bubble promoters forget is that no bull market goes straight up. The days of buy and hold – I call it buy and forget are over. There is no certainty that a stock will be higher in 6 or 12 months; although that is what Wall Street teaches. I believe to profit in today?s stock market you have two choices:

  1. Either dollar cost average (DCA) into a clear cut long term trend like the industrialization of emerging countries. Refer to my site for many articles on written on DCA.
  2. Learn how to read charts.

Looking at BHP?s chart, the ideal purchase price over the last month would have been around $35. If all the stars lined up you could have purchased it at $35, but more than likely you would have been petrified that $30 was right around the corner. Using charts, there is a strong likelihood that you could have picked it up at $38. Not quite $35, but in retrospect not a bad price. I think that you would be pleased with a 13% return in 3 weeks. Commodity stocks are simply too volatile to simply buy and forget. There will be many more drubbing such as the past 5 months before this bull market is over. An effective strategy is needed to navigate through these rough waters. Dollar cost averaging and charting are two that I believe work. BTW, BHP is most diversified mining company in the world. It has 37,000 people spread across 25 countries around the world. Globally it ranks 2nd in copper production, 2nd in thermal coal, 3rd in nickel, 4th in uranium, 6th in aluminum and 1st in silver. It also mines titanium, iron, coking coal and molybdenum. It even produces oil and gas. If you could only buy one mining stock – BHP would be an excellent choice.

About the Author

Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company\’s mantra is \”Why trade time for money … when you can have both.\” Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

Make sure to read one of Dawson\’s most popular articles: \”Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap\”

Writen By : Michael Dawson

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Trump And Rich Dad Reveal The Secret To Riches

Donald Trump and Robert Kiyosaki have written a new book, ?Why We Want You to be Rich: ?If you believe that working hard, saving money, investing for the long-term in mutual funds and diversifying is good advice then this book may not be for you.? They were on CNBC a couple of weeks ago, a day after the book was released and it was already #1 on the Business Best Seller?s list. Their names alone cause people to act. I have read several of Kiyosaki?s books and one or two of the Donalds, but I haven?t read this one yet. I stumbled on a review of the book which didn?t say much about the book – other than it is their best one yet. However, in the review the writer discusses an email that he received from a money manager that floored me.

Jack said it even better: ?In 18 years in the business of managing money I?ve NEVER [his emphasis] met anyone who accumulated significant investment assets (seven figures, or more today) from following a financial or retirement or savings plan.? ?Several studies over the last 10 years have found little consistency in planning advice when researchers posing as prospective clients visit various advisers. Consumer?s Union has a summary of the research on its Web site. These plans are simply another sales angle for Wall Street and its salespeople.?

Jack spotlights a major weakness in the Trump-Kiyosaki book: In spite of all their wealth, they?re na?ve about solving America?s financial illiteracy. More education? They are obviously oblivious of the fact that Wall Street already controls so-called ?financial education? in America, manipulating it as a sales tool for its own interests, not the investor?s.

This is exactly what I have been thinking for years. I lost a ton of money following Wall Streets mantra ?buy the dips?, ?over the long term stocks will go up? and the infamous ?buy and hold.? Buying and holding hasn?t worked very well over the past 6 years. The one I hate the most is to diversify across market capitalizations based on your age. We have all seen the spread sheets – where you enter your age and it suggests your portfolio allocation across small, mid and large cap stocks. What a crock? When the stock market goes down small, mid and large caps all go down ? all be it at different rates. Since commodities are inversely correlated with stocks – how about adding some to your portfolio. At least while stocks are free-falling, the commodities will serve as a hedge. How about varying your allocation of stocks and commodities based on where we are in the business cycle? Few will provide that advice, because it is not in their manual.

I am convinced that you will not become financially free, by working hard and trusting your financial advisor. I haven?t read Trump and Kiyosaki\’s book yet, but that is essentially what their title says. The money manager in the review reinforced my beliefs. My favorite quote from the review is the following:

Investing is not what you think: Stanley and Danko emphasize that ?the majority of the millionaires we interviewed said it?s nice to invest in the market, but the mother lode of investing is in their own business.? Get it? Invest in ?You, Inc.? if you really want to get rich.

Financial Freedom is about investing in you. No one cares about your financial well-being more than yourself. You will need assistance from advisors and such, but YOU must take charge and set the course

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