Posts Tagged funds

True Investment Road Maps

If you don\’t know where you are going any road will get there. After you get there you might not like where you ended up. You must plan ahead for your trip.

Do you know where you are going with your retirement portfolio? Do you have a plan mapped out? Do you know what to do if your plan starts hemorrhaging money like a stuck pig? Remember 2000? Of course that will never happen again, will it? I\’m glad you are so confident. I\’m not.

Every professional trader has a plan. Wait a minute. You say you are not a professional trader and you wouldn\’t trade like they do anyway. Well let me let you in on a little secret. If you don\’t learn to invest like a pro you are going to give him all (or most) of your money whether you like it or not.

What is it like to trade like a pro?

You won\’t like it and your broker and financial planner will like it even less. It is simple. The road to success is the road that has an exit ramp, in fact, several. It is like doing the Baja Road Race and carrying many spare tires. Without several tires you are not going to make it. Where are those exits? Why so many spare tires? Because without them you will be off the road in a ditch and unable to carry on.

The exits and the tires are your protection against becoming lost or broken down on your way to a comfortable retirement goal. To get where you are going in any vehicle you must not be stopped so you have to find an exit ramp when everyone else stays on the stagnating highway. That spare tire is one of your stocks or mutual funds that has gone flat and must be replaced. You are going to make it. The poor (sic) people who have no plan will remain mired on the highway to nowhere.

There is a secret to being a successful investor and it is one word – SELLING. Yes, any fool can buy, but it is the wise man who knows how to sell. That is called an exit strategy. If you do not have one you are doomed to lose money. During the long term bull market from 1982 to 2000 everyone became a financial genius. Now that we are in a long term bear market (that history shows us lasts an equal length of time) many of those financial geniuses are back in kindergarten and may not have time to graduate.

As the current stock market becomes more dangerous it is time to get out your road map to see where the exits are. It is time to realize that some of your tires could be wearing thin and may need to be replaced. No one is going to do this for you. Not your broker or your financial planner. You are the driver and a successful conclusion to this journey is completely up to you.

Al Thomas\’ book, \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy
It!\” has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step
method. Read the first chapter at
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he\’s the man that Wall Street
does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Writen By : Al Thomas

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Analyst Reports

When you become interested in a stock or mutual fund you can call your broker and he will send you reports on how the company is doing, what their management is like and what might be the projected earnings for the company and how the industry is doing. Great information.

You will apply yourself to this mound of papers to determine if you want to buy the equity. You might also send for more reports from independent analysts such as Morningstar. You will become buried in papers. That is what the brokerage company wants. The reason is very simple. If you buy the stock after doing all that research and it goes down instead of up they are not responsible for your stupidity. Of course, if it goes up they can take credit for providing all that great information.

Now let\’s think for a minute. You received all that information that was already printed so it could be sent to you. It makes me ask when was that printed? How old is the information? If I can get all this stuff about the company it means that anyone can. What it boils down to is the information is just that – information and none of it will tell you that the stock will go up further because the whole world knows.

These brochures are made to help you BUY not SELL. In my years of experience I call them a work of fiction. No brokerage company is going to issue a bad report about a company at least until it is ready for bankruptcy and by then your investment dollars have disappeared.

I know your next question. If I can\’t rely on those reports how am I going to buy anything? There is a better way. You will want to see the price action of the stock or mutual fund. All stocks undulate as they go up or down and you want to know the major trend.

On the Internet you can go to a web site www.bigcharts.com and type in the symbol of the stock or fund and request a weekly chart going back for about to 5 years. What you are interested in is what is it doing during the past 6 months to one year. If the trend is up it is a buy and if the trend is down or sideways don\’t buy it or if you own it sell. See how easy that is. Brokers and financial planners won\’t like it because it takes all the mystery out of buying stock and they don\’t want you to know this simple procedure.

Analyst reports give you lots of useless information, but will not tell if the stock will go up after you buy it. If it isn\’t going up don\’t buy it.

Al Thomas\’ book, \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy
It!\” has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step
method. Read the first chapter at
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he\’s the man that Wall Street
does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Writen By : Al Thomas

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Advisory News Letters

Several times each month I am solicited by various market touts who have a newsletter service, faxes or emails they are willing to send me to make me rich. That sure is nice of them.

The first thing that pops into my head is if this system is so good why are they willing to share it for the lowly sum of $19.95 per month. Of course, some of them will move the decimal point to the right and increase that front number, but not to worry – it is sold with a money back guarantee!

If you should desire to put your toe in the water here are some questions you might want to ask first:

1. Are the figures shown actual trades or is this hypothetical? If it is hypothetical you can stop right there. Total BS.

2. What is the minimum size account I need to take all your signals?

3. Do you use stops?

4. Is slippage and commission figured in?

5. If all trades were made for the past year what was the starting amount and the amount in the account at the end of the year?

6. What was the largest single loss?

7. What was the largest continuous drawdown (loss)?

8. How many winning trades? And average profit?

9. How many losing trades? And average loss?

10. Are you willing to tell me a few clients who are using your method with their permission, of course? (Get references.)

It has been my experience that you will not receive an answer or you might get a form letter saying their method is proprietary information and cannot be given out. Hogwash. We know where you can put that letter.

You might ask to see their model account. Surprisingly the Securities and Exchange Commission does not require these hucksters to maintain such an account. I\’d like to see such a regulation passed; there would be a lot less of these methods and systems sold as most of them would go broke.
Before you send any money please make them prove with additional documentation exactly what they are selling.

Al Thomas\’ book, \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t BuyIt!\” has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step
method. Read the first chapter at
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he\’s the man that Wall Street
does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Writen By : Al Thomas

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The Bottom?

Every day I hear someone on CNBC proclaim that \”this is the bottom\” and you should get in there and buy all those \”bargains\”. \”The valuations of the DOW stocks are a steal.\”

The low of DOW 8,000 immediately after September 11 was \”the low\” and the market did rally to about 10,700. That\’s 2,700 points. A smart trader could have made a fortune in six months. Oops! Then there was a Brody to DOW 7500. That\’s more than 3,000 points. That, for sure, is \”the bottom\”. I heard them say so on TV and radio. It can\’t go any lower. Can it?

There has been a 1,500 point rally, but there now seems to be another one of those \’Oops\’ taking place. What is going on anyway?

The great majority of the media are too young to remember the last bear market of 1973-74 when the S

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Bad News Is Good News

For weeks, no, months we have been bombarded with nothing but negative news about the economy in general and thousands of individual companies. The stock market has dropped thousands of points and more than $8 trillion in paper assets have disappeared.

Note I said paper assets because until you turn it into spendable money these numbers are but a figure on a piece of paper. Sure that doesn\’t make you feel any better when you bought Lucent at $80 and have seen it go to 80 cents. You could have protected you profits or reduced your loss if you have placed an open stop-loss order with your broker. Brokers hate this, but YOU must protect you capital because he is not going to.

This past 2 weeks the bad news has continued to be shoveled out by the news media, but instead of making the market go down it has rallied about 1,000 points. Having been a floor trader for many years my experience with this kind of reaction tells me what is going on. The market is ignoring the bad stuff and has decided to go UP. Hooray! The traders are grasping at anything that looks bullish and not paying any attention to the negatives.

The market had become so oversold that almost anything will cause it to advance. Now you want to know if this is \”the Bottom\”. No one can know for sure because the long -term trend remains down and is still in place. The voice of the market is now clearly saying, \”I don\’t want to go down for a while\”. It might even allow the stock prices to continue to rise. How far and for how long – don\’t ask. No one knows. The stock market remains an enigma wrapped in a mystery. A few very astute (or lucky) folks are able to understand market language and make profits whether it goes up or down. Mr. Average Broker (also Mr. Average Financial Planner) has no idea what the market is saying. They have not taken the time to learn their trade.

Many times what is actually bad news makes the market go up. Here is one example. The weekly unemployment figure comes out to show there were 30,000 fewer jobs. That isn\’t good news. The DOW jumps up 100 points. Huh? The Wall Street mavens were predicting job losses of 55,000 so this number is a blessing. See what I mean? It is not the actual news, but the difference in what was expected and what actually occurred. You can apply this to almost every statistic put out by important government and private agencies.

The same applies to good news that does not move the market up. What you think you see is not always what you get. Before you grasp any figure as either bullish or bearish find out what number was expected and wait for the reaction to it.

Bad news can be good news and visa versa.

Al Thomas\’ book, \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy
It!\” has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step
method. Read the first chapter at
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he\’s the man that Wall Street
does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Writen By : Al Thomas

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Financial Crime

Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for ?cooking the books? as it is called. Among other things it is taking the stockholders money and paying themselves huge bonuses for nonperformance. These guys are even worse than mutual fund managers who do the same thing ? get paid big salaries yet continue to lose your money.

I can remember many years ago (I?ve got a few years on me) when they started building very fancy prisons with nice cells and tennis courts and nothing but a tiny fence around them. The story was these were being built for government officials who might get caught with their hand in the till and I have no reason to doubt it.

Today we have the new Sarbanes-Oxley Act that makes it a federal crime to commit financial fraud of various kinds. This new piece of legislation is going to be about as effective as the Brady Bill was in eliminating crimes committed with a gun. A crook is a crook is a crook. With or without a gun.

It seems that most of these high-priced executives that were convicted have been going to halfway houses. No bars, no fences, no cells. About 50% of inmates (?) in these ?prisons? are those convicted of financial crimes. Most of the others are drug addicts and single moms. They can even get weekend passes to visit their palatial estates. Attorney General Ashcroft wants them to get the maximum sentences is a regular jail, but a group called the Sentencing Commission wants a lenient standard. I don?t know who is behind this group, but it seems to be in line with my motto of ?follow the money?. The more money you steal the shorter the jail time will be.

We recently had Merrill Lynch and other major brokers fined $1.4 billion (yes, that?s a B) for their lying to stockholders by giving out false information generated by their ?analysts?, read salesmen. Not one penny of this is going to the people who were cheated and none of the brokerage company executives will get any jail time.

Almost none of the individual company executives have been ordered to make even partial restitution to stockholders. Unless something is done this lenient policy will go into effect in the first week in January. If you have lost any money in the stock market these past 3 years I think it would be a good idea to let your Congressman know that you want those bums kept in jail until they give back as much as they have stolen or at least until they are as broke as their shareholders.

Many will agree that the punishment should fit the crime. Letting them serve their terms in halfway houses without repayment is not my idea of that. Maybe Washington should hear from you.

Al Thomas

Author of \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy It!\”

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Writen By : Al Thomas

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Look Out The Window

Quick, look out the window. It?s raining. No, the sun?s out. No, it?s cloudy. Wait a second, it is changing again, but I can?t tell what it is going to do.

Kinds like the stock market. Up one day, down the next, then goes sideways. That stock I bought is not acting right. Maybe I should sell it, but I?ll wait another day. My broker (the weatherman) says it will go back up.

At the beginning of every year we hear stock market forecast (whether we want to or not) and every one of the ?experts? is about as accurate as our TV weatherman. Be sure to take your umbrella. Every year the Wall Street Journal surveys more than 50 economists and every year about 1/3rd of them are right. A weatherman can do better than that. The analysis of these birds seems impeccable and when you hear them speak so confidently you are sure they are right. He must be right ? he?s a broker/economist/financial planner and they know everything. Well, at least a lot more than I do ? maybe.

Having owned a brokerage company and hired about 300 brokers I can assure you they don?t know any more than you do. It just sounds that way. The one question you should always ask any broker before you give him your money is if he had a winning year last year. The market was down overall about 25%. If he lost more than 5% you don?t want to know him. And if he says he made a bundle you had better question him carefully and ask for proof.

For the last 3 years almost everyone lost money. But this year it will be different. My broker said so. Only once before did it ever go down 4 years in a row and the odds of it?s happening again are astronomical. Now that?s logic for you. If you want to know what the weather is you look out the window. This same logic goes for the stock market. It is going down except for brief periods. As long as the major trend continues it would be wise NOT to buy anything.

Now that President Bush has given us his ?stimulus? package and the Democrats have countered with theirs I wonder how long they are going to fight over how much and who gets what. It could be months before we see anything definitive from Washington. And that means you and I won?t be getting any relief until then.

Tell those guys in the Beltway that it?s raining and we need an umbrella ? NOW!

Al Thomas

Author of \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy It!\”

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Writen By : Al Thomas

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