Posts Tagged gold

The Commodities Bull Market Is Back

It was just a few short months ago many were saying the bubble had burst in commodities. First of all, I never bought into the bubble talk. How can there be a bubble in commodities – when not one of your friends can name 5 gold stocks? Back in the internet bubble days, taxi cab drivers could rattle off the names of internet companies without skipping a beat. Before there can be a bubble the masses must participate.

The commodity bull market is being driven by simple supply and demand dynamics. Just think about the amount of copper that will be consumed as China industrializes. Mass industrialization takes many years. Everyone knows that Rome wasn?t built in a day and China will be no different.

What the bubble promoters forget is that no bull market goes straight up. The days of buy and hold – I call it buy and forget are over. There is no certainty that a stock will be higher in 6 or 12 months; although that is what Wall Street teaches. I believe to profit in today?s stock market you have two choices:

  1. Either dollar cost average (DCA) into a clear cut long term trend like the industrialization of emerging countries. Refer to my site for many articles on written on DCA.
  2. Learn how to read charts.

Looking at BHP?s chart, the ideal purchase price over the last month would have been around $35. If all the stars lined up you could have purchased it at $35, but more than likely you would have been petrified that $30 was right around the corner. Using charts, there is a strong likelihood that you could have picked it up at $38. Not quite $35, but in retrospect not a bad price. I think that you would be pleased with a 13% return in 3 weeks. Commodity stocks are simply too volatile to simply buy and forget. There will be many more drubbing such as the past 5 months before this bull market is over. An effective strategy is needed to navigate through these rough waters. Dollar cost averaging and charting are two that I believe work. BTW, BHP is most diversified mining company in the world. It has 37,000 people spread across 25 countries around the world. Globally it ranks 2nd in copper production, 2nd in thermal coal, 3rd in nickel, 4th in uranium, 6th in aluminum and 1st in silver. It also mines titanium, iron, coking coal and molybdenum. It even produces oil and gas. If you could only buy one mining stock – BHP would be an excellent choice.

About the Author

Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company\’s mantra is \”Why trade time for money … when you can have both.\” Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

Make sure to read one of Dawson\’s most popular articles: \”Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap\”

Writen By : Michael Dawson

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Trump And Rich Dad Reveal The Secret To Riches

Donald Trump and Robert Kiyosaki have written a new book, ?Why We Want You to be Rich: ?If you believe that working hard, saving money, investing for the long-term in mutual funds and diversifying is good advice then this book may not be for you.? They were on CNBC a couple of weeks ago, a day after the book was released and it was already #1 on the Business Best Seller?s list. Their names alone cause people to act. I have read several of Kiyosaki?s books and one or two of the Donalds, but I haven?t read this one yet. I stumbled on a review of the book which didn?t say much about the book – other than it is their best one yet. However, in the review the writer discusses an email that he received from a money manager that floored me.

Jack said it even better: ?In 18 years in the business of managing money I?ve NEVER [his emphasis] met anyone who accumulated significant investment assets (seven figures, or more today) from following a financial or retirement or savings plan.? ?Several studies over the last 10 years have found little consistency in planning advice when researchers posing as prospective clients visit various advisers. Consumer?s Union has a summary of the research on its Web site. These plans are simply another sales angle for Wall Street and its salespeople.?

Jack spotlights a major weakness in the Trump-Kiyosaki book: In spite of all their wealth, they?re na?ve about solving America?s financial illiteracy. More education? They are obviously oblivious of the fact that Wall Street already controls so-called ?financial education? in America, manipulating it as a sales tool for its own interests, not the investor?s.

This is exactly what I have been thinking for years. I lost a ton of money following Wall Streets mantra ?buy the dips?, ?over the long term stocks will go up? and the infamous ?buy and hold.? Buying and holding hasn?t worked very well over the past 6 years. The one I hate the most is to diversify across market capitalizations based on your age. We have all seen the spread sheets – where you enter your age and it suggests your portfolio allocation across small, mid and large cap stocks. What a crock? When the stock market goes down small, mid and large caps all go down ? all be it at different rates. Since commodities are inversely correlated with stocks – how about adding some to your portfolio. At least while stocks are free-falling, the commodities will serve as a hedge. How about varying your allocation of stocks and commodities based on where we are in the business cycle? Few will provide that advice, because it is not in their manual.

I am convinced that you will not become financially free, by working hard and trusting your financial advisor. I haven?t read Trump and Kiyosaki\’s book yet, but that is essentially what their title says. The money manager in the review reinforced my beliefs. My favorite quote from the review is the following:

Investing is not what you think: Stanley and Danko emphasize that ?the majority of the millionaires we interviewed said it?s nice to invest in the market, but the mother lode of investing is in their own business.? Get it? Invest in ?You, Inc.? if you really want to get rich.

Financial Freedom is about investing in you. No one cares about your financial well-being more than yourself. You will need assistance from advisors and such, but YOU must take charge and set the course

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Will Emerging Economies Come To The Rescue Of The U.S.?

U.S. Federal Reserve Chariman Ben Bernanke stated lately that the enormous U.S. trade deficit that the U.S. has incurred over the years is nothing to worry about because it merely reflects global savings patterns. He states that emerging economies has a huge glut of savings and thus the U.S. necessarily must have a great debt to balance out the rest of the world

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Trading Without A Mentor Is Like Flying Blind

Bill Gates, the richest man in the world, often talks about his mentor Warren Buffet, who just happens to be the world\’s most successful investor. It is well documented that Buffet was mentored by famed investor Benjamin Graham who is known as the father of value investing. Many businesses have formal mentor programs as its benefits have been proven over and over. Successful people often mention that a prime reason of their achievement was having a mentor. So, if the Gates and the Buffets of world have mentors, so shouldn\’t you have one? I would like to suggest that trading without a mentor is like flying blind.

I can imagine the reaction of many readers. They are saying, \”That sounds good, but where in the h….. am I, an individual trader, going to find a mentor – smart a….\” I can understand that response. If you worked on Wall Street, I imagine that it wouldn\’t be much of a problem. There you will find many like-minded traders that could be called upon to serve as your mentor, but how about on Main Street? How many successful traders do you know? I know a few who have tried, but I don\’t know of many that have been able to survive for more than a couple of years. The market is brutal and it takes no prisoners. Also I believe a successful mentorship requires a like-minded trading philosophy. There are some aspects that transcend trading styles, but how much can a day trader learn from a value investor? So, the probabilities of personally knowing a like-mind successful trader that could serve as your mentor are pretty slim.

So, what are your alternatives? If you know Warren Buffet well enough to ask him to be your mentor – you probably wouldn\’t be reading this article. However, he has written numerous books. So, by studying his works you could develop a rather one-sided mentorship. I am willing to bet that even if you purchased all of his books; he still wouldn\’t take your phone calls.

I have heard of trading coaches that you can hire. At least since you are paying them, they will take your phone calls – but probably not before 4:30 PM. I can\’t imagine a trader being distracted during market hours with your problems. Your distraction could cost them much more than they could charge you. I have never looked into such programs, but I would think that they could be valuable.

The ideal trading mentor is probably not practical for most. I have settled for a pseudo-mentor approach. So, what does that mean? I believe that there are three criteria for a trading mentor. He or she must be successful, must have a like trading philosophy and be \”somewhat-available.\” The \”somewhat-available\” is why I call it a pseudo-mentor relationship.

Over the past 5 or 6 years I have tried to force-fit different trading services into this concept of a pseudo-mentor. It is quite easy to find newsletter writers that claim to be successful. Matter of fact, I have never heard one claim to not be. The beauty of the market is that it is measurable. If the newsletter is claiming to be the greatest thing since sliced bread, it won\’t take long to determine if they are only blowing smoke. Also like-minded services are easy to find. There are newsletters for day traders, trend traders, momentum traders, fundamental investors, contrarian investors, all styles are covered. The difficulty is availability. Most aren?t available. Most won?t return your emails. Most only want a one-way street. That?s almost like reading Buffet?s books. However, the newsletters are more frequent, weekly or monthly, thus having a higher impact on your daily trading.

To addresses the availability, you can try an online trading room. No, I am not talking about Yahoo message boards. Online trading rooms are legitimate trading services where the leaders exchange ideas and provide assistance to others. It is not like having a personal mentor that is available only for you, but you can bounce ideas off of someone before making the plunge.

For the past two years, I have been using Jack Chan?s trading service that fits between a newsletter and on-line trading room. He provides almost daily updates as well as email support. For me, this is perfect. I don?t need much hand holding, but I do have questions on occasion that he answers quite promptly. These questions are typically quite focused, so he is not going to help you develop a trading philosophy. He is also not a financial advisor so he won?t help with portfolio allocations and such. However, if you are thinking about shorting and his cycle indicators have just turned up ? he will advise against doing that.

So, how does Jack stack up versus my three requirements? First, he is successful. I have used his service for two years and can attest to his success. Secondly his trading philosophy is consistent with mine. He is a trend trader and only trades Gold, Oil and Technology stocks. I trade those as well as Base Metals and Water stocks. Finally, he is \”somewhat available.\” His email service serves me well. This is not the classic mentoring relationship, but it beats flying blind.

About the Author

Michael Dawson recently said goodbye to a 20 year career in Engineering, Marketing and Sales to focus on living his dream of financial independence. He has since founded The Time and Money Group as vehicle to encourage others to do the same. The company\’s mantra is \”Why trade time for money … when you can have both.\” Sign up for their free weekly newsletter, where he and others discuss the different paths to financial freedom and offer insights for your successful navigation.

http://www.thetimeandmoneygroup.com

Make sure to read one of Dawson\’s most popular articles: \”Saying Good-Bye to the Time for Money Swap\”

Writen By : Michael Dawson

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Navigating Thru A Trading Fiasco

Two weeks ago the Canadian government announced that it was imposing a new tax on income trusts. This announcement shocked the market and sent the Toronto Stock Exchange S

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Global Warming: It\’s Real And It\’s Creating Opportunities To Build Wealth

Writen By : J.S. Kim

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