Posts Tagged Home Prices

More Foreign Buyers Increase Demand for New York Real Estate

While the dollar has fallen to new lows against most major foreign currencies, most foreign investors have shied away from investing in American real estate due to the subprime mortgage crisis.

Furthermore, the subprime problems are the second major financial crisis in less than a decade that has as its root cause a lack of adequate government regulation and oversight. Hence the large number of economic analysts that have argued foreigners have grown understandably wary of U.S. markets. While the United States used to receive a “transparency bonus” for our famously reliable and detailed economic and financial statistics, the U.S. is now being penalized by foreign investors concerned about more hidden troubles caused by a deregulated financial industry.

New York City, however, has largely been sheltered from the subprime woes that have enveloped the rest of the country. Because of this and several other factors, the city’s real estate prices are largely expected to increase over the next several years.

Furthermore, most new New York apartments are condominiums. Unlike the old coopertively owned buildings that used to be about all the city had to offer, condos are one of the most liquid investments in real estate available to the regular buyer. That is, a condo can be bought and sold relatively easily with comparatively little extra costs of time, effort and money.

This trifecta – a low dollar, rising prices and reasonably flexible ownership structures – has become too much for foreign buyers to ignore. In numbers that are growing fast enough to make most major business media outlets take notice, foreigners have been purchasing condos and other properties across the New York City skyline.

Greater freedom and growth in global financial markets has allowed for an increased demand among foreign investors for New York
real estate, with demand for new Manhattan condos being particularly strong.

South Korea, for instance, has recently raised the limit it places on its citizens’ foreign investments from one to three million dollars.
High rent prices in the city have also pushed many potential renters into the buyers column. According to a recently released report on the nation’s rental markets, rent prices have climbed 3.6% in the last quarter alone, a rate of growth that outpaced every other market the report covered.
Higher rental rates in the future – which are also expected for all of Manhattan – also makes purchasing an apartment more attractive for investors looking to rent a condo until the opportune time to sell.

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How Lower Home Prices Hurt Everything

Words like “stabilization” and “contained” have all but evaporated from the housing economist’s lexicon in the past few months. If anyone was still clinging to the hope that the housing market had stabilized, he probably let go after seeing the latest data. In the second quarter, U.S. single-family home prices suffered their biggest decline in at least 20 years, according to an Aug. 28 report from Standard & Poor’s. And the number of new and existing single-family homes for sale reached almost 4.4 million, the most ever. The glut of unsold homes almost guarantees that prices will continue to drop in the months ahead.

The latest numbers weren’t exactly a surprise-economists have been predicting a worsening housing market for months. Then again, a Category 5 hurricane may not be a surprise, either, but it still hurts when it hits. The housing market’s troubles are currently the source of a passel of seemingly unrelated problems, from stock market weakness to uncertain consumer spending. The housing market’s continued decline is making all of those problems worse.
Consumer Spending on Hold

Automakers and dealers, for example, are directly affected by the housing downturn. A year ago, consumers were still taking out home equity loans and using the tax-deductible cash to buy new cars. That’s drying up, says Mike Jackson, chief executive officer of AutoNation (AN), the nation’s largest car dealer chain. To make matters worse, consumers with adjustable-rate mortgages are paying more every month in interest, causing many to put off buying big-ticket items such as cars and appliances. Says Jackson: “It’s a nitroglycerine combination.”

Businesses like AutoNation can’t easily plan for the worst because they don’t know when housing will finally bottom out. That’s partly because falling housing prices can create a self-reinforcing downward spiral: Lenders pull back when they fear prices will fall, so would-be borrowers can’t buy homes, and prices fall even more. Even well-financed buyers back away when they see prices falling. “There is really no line of sight as to when this will be over,” says Brian Bethune, director of financial economics for the U.S. Macroeconomics Group at Global Insight, a consulting firm. Bethune thinks housing prices could fall an additional 5% or more. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s (MCO) Economy.com recently raised his estimate for the decline in home prices by the end of 2008 to 10% (peak to trough), from 5%.

While the figures on unsold homes came from the Census Bureau and the National Association of Realtors, the quarterly price figures were from Standard & Poor’s (which, like BusinessWeek, is a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies (MHP)). It reported that the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Home Price index fell 3.2% in the second quarter of 2007 from a year earlier. While regional slumps are relatively common, nationwide annual declines in home prices are rare.
Affordable Mortgages? Forget It

When home prices fall, defaults and foreclosures rise. “Home prices have historically been the biggest factor in determining the levels of default,” says Jay Brinkmann, vice-president for research and economics at the Mortgage Bankers Assn. One reason is that homeowners hit by life events such as divorce, a major illness, or the loss of a job are less able to get out from under a mortgage to cover the expense if the value of the home is falling. Also, borrowers who had intended to refinance into more affordable mortgages can’t do so when they have little or no equity. According to RealtyTrac, foreclosures in July rose 9% from June and 93% from July, 2006.

Falling prices also cause buyers to back off. The most direct hit to the economy is through the downturn in housing construction, which was a major source of job growth during the boom. Economists at JPMorgan Chase (JPM) now see additional contractions in residential construction taking a full percentage point off of growth for the next three quarters. The indirect hit to the economy is through consumer spending on everything from cars to dishwashers to holiday presents. An outright recession remains unlikely, but it can’t be dismissed. A lot depends on when the housing market finally stabilizes, which no one can say for sure.

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How To Determine If Your Real Estate Investment Market Will Go Up Or Down

These days it’s hard to know what is happening in the housing market. Is it rising or falling? There are plenty of people out there trying to predict what is going to happen. The problem is that they are looking nationwide or citywide. Investors need to know what is happening in their specific farm area, though. There are a number of factors that drive real estate prices up or down in any given area. Each market reacts to its own set of conditions, and even different neighborhoods and types of properties will react according to its own set of circumstances.

For the most part, changes in home prices tend to be determined by the inventory of homes available. There is typically a 6-10 month lag time in price changes. That is to say that if inventory increase, prices will decrease about 6-10 months later, and if there is a decrease in inventory, prices will increase about 6-10 months later. Investors benefit because they can use low short sale prices to sell houses quickly before the rest of the inventory catches up. There is a very simple rule of thumb you can use in your market in 2010. When there are 8 months or more of inventory available, prices will fall. If there are 2-3 months of inventory available, prices will rise.

In many areas the first round of the First Time Homebuyer credit could not quench the high demand for starter homes. If your are one of them, the feeding frenzy for lower end homes could continue. Since the credit was expanded to all buyers, sales and prices may be boosted because there will be a larger supply of both homes and buyers available. The impact of the credit might not be that large, though.

The cost of ownership is another factor that directly drives up the price of homes. In 2010, the U.S. Treasury will play a very important role in determining whether the market will rise or fall. There was been little incentive shown by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in 2009, but it might be different in 2010. The Fed might experience pressure to raise interest rates in order to attract more buyers of U.S. debt. Even just a small increase in interest rates could drive potential buyers out of the market. State income taxes and local property taxes could increase in the coming year as the local governments face pressure to balance their budgets in 2011. Any increase in property taxes will decrease the number of buyers in the market.

Last, but certainly not least, will be the impact of foreclosures on the housing market in many communities. I believe there will be spikes that occur in markets that heavily used the Option ARM for mortgages between 2004 and 2007 that are going to reset higher as interest rates push payments up. Communities still drowning in unemployment will also experience higher foreclosure levels.

These are just a few of the factors that will impact your local market conditions. Apply the ones that fit. Every market and micro-market will be different.

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How To Make Money in Real Estate – In a Recession!

Pending US home sales fell to the lowest level on record in 2008, according to the National Association of Realtors. With home prices dropping, and that market following Wall Street down the slippery slope, it stands to figure that the apartment market is up. With so many displaced former homeowners, they have to live somewhere. With educated apartment building investors enjoying higher occupancy rates and reaping higher rents, the only remaining question is ‘How do I cash in?’

Steve Steadele, author of Multifamily Millionaire: How To Get Wealthy Buying and Selling Apartment Buildings from New Wealth Publishing, can tell people how to get their share of a booming apartment market the way the pros do. Not a scam, not a gimmick – simply a solid market opportunity.

“What’s really exciting about this is that novice investors can be just as successful as seasoned pros,” Steadele said. “I own lots of properties and was able to get into them easily, without a lot of cash. One seller even paid me $20,000 to take his building. Today Sellers want out of their rental property because they bought at the wrong time in the wrong place. Some guru told them to mortgage their house and buy an apartment building at the top of the cycle. Those same Buyers are today’s Sellers. They lost a lot of money and in some cases they lost the property. Many have other investments that are tanking and they need to liquidate assets to stay afloat. It’s unfortunate. Had they been properly educated, they could have avoided this mess. Now their losses can be your gain.”

Most real estate investment ideas are faced with a natural cynicism, primarily because there are so many hucksters out there pitching their “secrets” to buying and selling real estate without capital and without experience. The old axiom of “buyer beware” usually accompanies these programs, because many people ask the legitimate question of, “if this was so easy, why isn’t everyone doing it?” Steadele offers no such illusions when talking about the burgeoning apartment market.

“The controversial part about this is that most gurus talk about how easy it is to do,” he said. “It’s not easy – but it’s not prohibitively difficult, either.”
Like all high-priced business deals, there is a strong component of research, planning and sweat equity that goes into being successful, which answers the cynic’s query. It’s not easy, but it is feasible.

The general clarion call here is that apartments make sense. They’re one of the best long-term investments a person can make. Steadele teaches people when, where and how to buy apartment buildings so they can do what they want, when they want.

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