The Shadow knows. There used to be a radio program called The Shadow where the hero, Lamont Cranston, the Shadow, would overcome the shadowy forces of doom by clouding the vision of those around him. ?Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men? was their intro line. They were great shows and you can still find them on the Internet.

The stock market is kind of like the shadow. As you walk along with the sun at your back you cast a shadow. No matter which way you move the shadow stays ahead. Fast, slow, right, left. It doesn?t make any difference.

An equity market is the shadow of the economy staying out in front following every twist and turn. Depending upon the height of the sun the shadow may be long or short. You can see it either as a long term or short term prediction of the passage.

If you did not know what a shadow was you would not realize it is telling you something about where you are going. If you see the shadow fall across a hole you know you must step over or around it depending upon its width and depth. The path of our economy is predicted by the direction of the stock market. When things are good and everyone is making money the shadow seems to go up and when the economy slows (for whatever reason) the shadow darker and heads down.

At this time (11/04) the sun is shining brightly and the shadow stretches out long and friendly before us. The stock market is going up and everyone is feeling good, but we also know that tomorrow storm clouds may appear making our shadow seem to be a monster black image that hides the potholes in our path.

When that occurs we must be ready to put on our raincoat to protect what we carry through life. One of the most important is the money we have put aside for the time we wish to depart the path, sit by the road and contemplate all the beautiful things we have brought. That means we must guard against losing what we have created and not let the shadowy rain cloud wash them away.

That raincoat for your investments is an exit strategy for your portfolio. Without a plan to protect your assets it will be too easy to seem them washed away. This does not mean diversification which is what brokers want you to do. It means a plan to exit (sell) stock and mutual funds that are going down. This can be done with a simple percentage stop-loss order for your stocks and a mental stop loss for funds.

Brokers never want you to sell even though there may be a commission involved because once you money is in a money market neither they nor the brokerage company makes any money. You and only you care about your money so you must protect it. Think about an exit plan now and put it into place.

Do not become a victim of the dark shadow.

About The Author

Al Thomas

F*R*E*E investment letter www.mutualfundmagic.com

Author of best seller \”IF IT DOESN\’T GO UP, DON\’T BUY IT!\” Never lose money in the market.

Copyright 2004 Albert W. Thomas All rights reserved.

Former 17-year exchange member, floor trader and brokerage company owner.

Writen By : Al Thomas

Tags: 401k, finances, funds, investments, ira, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, retirement investments, stocks

If you don\’t know where you are going any road will get there. After you get there you might not like where you ended up. You must plan ahead for your trip.

Do you know where you are going with your retirement portfolio? Do you have a plan mapped out? Do you know what to do if your plan starts hemorrhaging money like a stuck pig? Remember 2000? Of course that will never happen again, will it? I\’m glad you are so confident. I\’m not.

Every professional trader has a plan. Wait a minute. You say you are not a professional trader and you wouldn\’t trade like they do anyway. Well let me let you in on a little secret. If you don\’t learn to invest like a pro you are going to give him all (or most) of your money whether you like it or not.

What is it like to trade like a pro?

You won\’t like it and your broker and financial planner will like it even less. It is simple. The road to success is the road that has an exit ramp, in fact, several. It is like doing the Baja Road Race and carrying many spare tires. Without several tires you are not going to make it. Where are those exits? Why so many spare tires? Because without them you will be off the road in a ditch and unable to carry on.

The exits and the tires are your protection against becoming lost or broken down on your way to a comfortable retirement goal. To get where you are going in any vehicle you must not be stopped so you have to find an exit ramp when everyone else stays on the stagnating highway. That spare tire is one of your stocks or mutual funds that has gone flat and must be replaced. You are going to make it. The poor (sic) people who have no plan will remain mired on the highway to nowhere.

There is a secret to being a successful investor and it is one word – SELLING. Yes, any fool can buy, but it is the wise man who knows how to sell. That is called an exit strategy. If you do not have one you are doomed to lose money. During the long term bull market from 1982 to 2000 everyone became a financial genius. Now that we are in a long term bear market (that history shows us lasts an equal length of time) many of those financial geniuses are back in kindergarten and may not have time to graduate.

As the current stock market becomes more dangerous it is time to get out your road map to see where the exits are. It is time to realize that some of your tires could be wearing thin and may need to be replaced. No one is going to do this for you. Not your broker or your financial planner. You are the driver and a successful conclusion to this journey is completely up to you.

Al Thomas\’ book, \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy
It!\” has helped thousands of people make money
and keep their profits with his simple 2-step
method. Read the first chapter at
http://www.mutualfundmagic.com
and discover why he\’s the man that Wall Street
does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Writen By : Al Thomas

Tags: 401k, finances, funds, investments, ira, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, retirement investments, stocks

Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for ?cooking the books? as it is called. Among other things it is taking the stockholders money and paying themselves huge bonuses for nonperformance. These guys are even worse than mutual fund managers who do the same thing ? get paid big salaries yet continue to lose your money.

I can remember many years ago (I?ve got a few years on me) when they started building very fancy prisons with nice cells and tennis courts and nothing but a tiny fence around them. The story was these were being built for government officials who might get caught with their hand in the till and I have no reason to doubt it.

Today we have the new Sarbanes-Oxley Act that makes it a federal crime to commit financial fraud of various kinds. This new piece of legislation is going to be about as effective as the Brady Bill was in eliminating crimes committed with a gun. A crook is a crook is a crook. With or without a gun.

It seems that most of these high-priced executives that were convicted have been going to halfway houses. No bars, no fences, no cells. About 50% of inmates (?) in these ?prisons? are those convicted of financial crimes. Most of the others are drug addicts and single moms. They can even get weekend passes to visit their palatial estates. Attorney General Ashcroft wants them to get the maximum sentences is a regular jail, but a group called the Sentencing Commission wants a lenient standard. I don?t know who is behind this group, but it seems to be in line with my motto of ?follow the money?. The more money you steal the shorter the jail time will be.

We recently had Merrill Lynch and other major brokers fined $1.4 billion (yes, that?s a B) for their lying to stockholders by giving out false information generated by their ?analysts?, read salesmen. Not one penny of this is going to the people who were cheated and none of the brokerage company executives will get any jail time.

Almost none of the individual company executives have been ordered to make even partial restitution to stockholders. Unless something is done this lenient policy will go into effect in the first week in January. If you have lost any money in the stock market these past 3 years I think it would be a good idea to let your Congressman know that you want those bums kept in jail until they give back as much as they have stolen or at least until they are as broke as their shareholders.

Many will agree that the punishment should fit the crime. Letting them serve their terms in halfway houses without repayment is not my idea of that. Maybe Washington should hear from you.

Al Thomas

Author of \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy It!\”

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Writen By : Al Thomas

Tags: 401k, finances, funds, investments, ira, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, retirement investments, stocks

Quick, look out the window. It?s raining. No, the sun?s out. No, it?s cloudy. Wait a second, it is changing again, but I can?t tell what it is going to do.

Kinds like the stock market. Up one day, down the next, then goes sideways. That stock I bought is not acting right. Maybe I should sell it, but I?ll wait another day. My broker (the weatherman) says it will go back up.

At the beginning of every year we hear stock market forecast (whether we want to or not) and every one of the ?experts? is about as accurate as our TV weatherman. Be sure to take your umbrella. Every year the Wall Street Journal surveys more than 50 economists and every year about 1/3rd of them are right. A weatherman can do better than that. The analysis of these birds seems impeccable and when you hear them speak so confidently you are sure they are right. He must be right ? he?s a broker/economist/financial planner and they know everything. Well, at least a lot more than I do ? maybe.

Having owned a brokerage company and hired about 300 brokers I can assure you they don?t know any more than you do. It just sounds that way. The one question you should always ask any broker before you give him your money is if he had a winning year last year. The market was down overall about 25%. If he lost more than 5% you don?t want to know him. And if he says he made a bundle you had better question him carefully and ask for proof.

For the last 3 years almost everyone lost money. But this year it will be different. My broker said so. Only once before did it ever go down 4 years in a row and the odds of it?s happening again are astronomical. Now that?s logic for you. If you want to know what the weather is you look out the window. This same logic goes for the stock market. It is going down except for brief periods. As long as the major trend continues it would be wise NOT to buy anything.

Now that President Bush has given us his ?stimulus? package and the Democrats have countered with theirs I wonder how long they are going to fight over how much and who gets what. It could be months before we see anything definitive from Washington. And that means you and I won?t be getting any relief until then.

Tell those guys in the Beltway that it?s raining and we need an umbrella ? NOW!

Al Thomas

Author of \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy It!\”

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Writen By : Al Thomas

Tags: 401k, finances, funds, investments, ira, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, retirement investments, stocks

There is no question that the stock market is being affected by war jitters. When it looks like peace we have a strong rally. When it looks like shooting will begin momentarily the market takes a dump. What should you do with your stock, mutual funds or cash that is waiting to find a home?

Back when I was a floor trader we had a saying ?When in doubt get out?. And that applies just as strongly today to everyone whether you area professional trader or a retired person living off your equity income.

You might say that I am not a trader or speculator so I won?t do anything. Let me clarify what you really are. You are a speculator whether you want to admit it or not. The only thing that separates you from the floor trader who is scalping for a few ticks and someone who has thousands of dollars in a retirement account is the time frame. If all you do is buy and hold you still are a speculator. You are hoping the market will come back. Your broker told you so.

What your broker did not tell you is that long-term bull markets are followed by long-term bear markets of equal length. Because we have been in a long-term bull from 1982 to 2000 the mindset of the investor has become conditioned to believe the every correction will see another new high. That is true, but can you afford to wait that long? In the crash of 1929 ? ?32 it took almost 25 years to see a new high in the market averages. Do you have that much time? Also folks don?t remember that many companies went out of business so your ?average? went out the window.

With the market so precariously perched it might be best to stand aside with your cash in your hand or under your mattress. When the Iraq war starts we could see a 1,000-point move ? and it could be either direction. What kind of a gambler are you? We?ll see.

Ask yourself this question: Is this bear market caused by Iraq? Back in 2000 no one knew where Iraq was on the map much less were able to spell Baghdad. We can?t blame Saddam for the loss of about 50% of market equity. When it comes right down to it the Iraq war is just another event in a long-term bear market just as 9/11 was. Events do trigger violent moves, but the overall trend is what is important and now that is down.

Another old saying is ?don?t fight the trend?. War or no war the safest place for your money is not in equities during this down phase. Cash or bonds are the only place to be.

Are you ready for the next violent move?

Al Thomas

Author of \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy It!\”

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Writen By : Al Thomas

Tags: 401k, finances, funds, investments, ira, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, retirement investments, stocks

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall and all the King?s horsemen could not put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

The Stock Market has had a great fall and all the brokers, CEOs, analysts and politicians have not been able to get it back up again.

Oh, it will go up again, but if history has a way of repeating it will be a long time before we see it at ?even?. From 1920 to the present there have been 3 major bull markets lasting close to 16 years. Unfortunately, each has been followed by a bear market of about the same length of time. So far we are ending the 3rd year of the projected down cycle with only 13 more years to get to the bottom. It is a long way off.

At a recent investment seminar one of the speakers asked his large audience if they believed the stock market would be higher 5 years from now. Every one except one thought it would be. The current mindset of most investors believes this also. For the period from 1982 to 2000 (18 years, close enough) there has been a bull market. Every investor has considered himself to be a financial genius during that time. There is an old saying, ?The market makes fools of us all ? sooner or later?.

Unless you learn to listen to what the market is saying and not your broker, you will be able to recoup some of your losses, but probably not all. During this long-term bear called a secular bear market, your main effort will not be to make money but to keep from losing more. During a bear market the one who loses the least is a winner. You may not like what I say, but history has that strange way of doing it over and over.

Maybe I am wrong about it because ?this time it is different?. I hope so, but you can protect your money in your 401K or elsewhere with a simple loss limit order. Call your broker and have him place a 10% (or whatever number your prefer) stop-loss order on all your positions. That way you don?t guess about where to sell; you let the market tell you when it has turned weak.

Brokers and brokerage companies hate stop-loss orders and will try to talk you out of it. Ask him if he will guarantee your portfolio. You can bet he isn?t that dumb. It is your money. Once it is gone you will have very little chance of getting it back. Protect what you have left.

Don?t be a Humpty Dumpty!

Al Thomas

Author of \”If It Doesn\’t Go Up, Don\’t Buy It!\”

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Writen By : Al Thomas

Tags: 401k, finances, funds, investments, ira, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, retirement investments, stocks