Posts Tagged stock

How To Play Splits

Stock splits are one of the most powerful stock-moving mechanisms. They became rather sparse when the market bubble burst, but when the DOW and NASDAQ moves much higher, more splits are announced.

Many analysts say that stock splits don\’t mean anything. BALONEY! What they mean is that the \”values stay the same.\” That is true. For instance, if you own 100 shares of XYZ at 100 dollars per share and the company does a 2-for-1 split, the next day you will have 200 shares at 50 dollars per share. The \”value\” is the same because you had 100 X100 which equals 10,000 and now you have 200 X 50 which equals 10,000.

But the analysts don?t take into account the profound psychological element of a stock split. That is the part that analysts cannot measure and therefore rarely mention. At InvestYourself, however, we understand the power of the stock split and bring winning split plays to you every week.

When a split is announced, you often see that stock rocket up on the news. More times than not it falls back after a few days and wanders around fairly aimlessly for a while. Many people call this the \”flat\’ period or \”dormant\” phase.

Then something interesting takes place. A good company\’s stock will begin a rally about 10 days to two weeks before the date of the actual split execution. Why is that? Remember when the split was announced the stock popped and then fell back, often to BELOW where it was when they announced the split? On that first run-up, VOLUME came into the stock. The news was exciting, and tons of shares were purchased in a short period of time.

As the split execution nears, buying volume starts picking up and the share price rises. We call this the beginning of the \”split run.\” Why does volume increase? For number of reasons, but the main one is the excitement returns to the stock. Some people want to own that stock before the \”date of record\” and buy into it for any dividends that might be disbursed. Others want it because they know they will have twice as much stock after the split.

We buy it because history shows that more times than not a great company will indeed run into its split! If you look at hundreds of charts from hundreds of companies you will see the pattern over and over. Unless the market is very weak, the stock chart will show a definite move to the upside right before the split execution.

Sometimes a split runner will run right up to the execution day and other times it sells off ahead of the execution. With this in mind, you should consider taking out your profits the day before the execution day. What do you do with a runner with huge momentum that looks like it could get more the next day? Use your stop loss to lock in profits without too much worry of it reversing and falling

Naturally there is never a rule that works every time, but for the most part getting in about three weeks (15 trading days) before a split executes and selling out the day before or the morning of the split still has a winning rate of about 80%. Those are good odds in any venture.

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Writen By : Larry Potter

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Understanding Trailing Stops

Once you are in the trade and your stock has started moving in your direction, you need to extract as much profit as possible. Not being able to do so will make you a losing trader in the long run.

How can a trader lose if he only takes small profits at a time? Profit is profit, isn?t it? Not exactly? Profit of $100 is not the same as a profit of $250. If such profits are followed by two losses of $75 each, profit of $100 will become $50 loss, while profit of $250 will become $100 win.

Do you get the point?

Profits are always followed by losses and if the profits are small they will not make up for the losses that will eventually and surely follow. However, becoming too greedy can turn a small profit into a loss. This will make you lose money in the long run. The best solution to resolving these conflicts is to use trailing stops.

As the name says, trailing stop follows the stock price that is moving in your direction.

For example, let?s say that we have bought 100 shares of company XYZ at $50 per share. We will automatically put our stop loss at 49.50. The price starts to move upwards and reaches $51. At that point we don?t want in any case to get out of this trade without profit. We will now move our stop
loss to $50.50, meaning that if the price turns against us we will hit sell order once the price hits $50.50 in order to make at least some profit from the trade. If the price continues to move in the positive direction we will keep adjusting our stop loss accordingly. If the price hits $51.50 we will move our stop loss to $51.

Once we are more deeply ?in the money? we can start using our stop loss more liberally and give the stock price more breathing space. In our example, this means that if the price hits $53, we could put the stop loss at $52. We are able to do this because we have already made a decent profit and can afford more risk. We can also do this when the stock is in a clear upward trend. Small change in the stock?s direction can mean temporary profit taking, which will be followed by movement in our direction.

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Writen By : Larry Potter

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How To Profit From A Stock You Don\’t Even Own

We want to look at shorting for a moment because here we have something that is quite profitable if done right, but can hang you out to dry if not. As you know, one of the problems with shorting is the \”uptick\” rule, where you literally have to wait on an uptick to jump on a short (this means the stock must have advanced some.) That\’s why you rarely, if ever, get the short filled right at the level you want. For instance let\’s say you like XYZ short below the $50 level. Well if it\’s sinking like a rock, and blasts belows 50, 49.95, 49.90, 49,85 and \”then\” finally bounces, you might get filled at say 49.90 or so.

This isn\’t really a problem, it\’s just something to keep in mind when searching for a short. You won\’t get that short right at the support line most times. But you can try and even out he odds in your favor. How? Suppose you love a short on XYZ at $50 because every time it\’s lost the $50 level, it sinks like a proverbial rock. Well if it plunges under 50 and you get no uptick to short, don\’t despair. If you sit tight, chances are the stock is going to bounce and try and regain that 50 level again. This is usually a good time to place that short.

Suppose it does fade 50 and hits 49.87, then starts bouncing. Yes, it\’s possible it reclaims 50 and keeps heading higher, but it\’s more likely that 50 level will now be a resistance level and if you short on the last hurrah push to hit 50, say at 49.95 or 96, chances are good it will not make the breakout and will fade back down. That failed reclaim attempt is generally the best short you can have since the market senses it couldn\’t retake 50 and lets the stock fall.

Now, ETF\’s don\’t have this problem and they are easier to trade on the short side. Take the BBH for example. It is very volatile and since you don\’t need an up tick to jump on it as a short, it\’s often fun to short it the moment it loses a significant support line. Even if it bounces shortly after, you can often pocket 30 cents or more on the initial fade and for the daytraders out there, that\’s fine money. If you are \”new\” to shorting stocks, it\’s a recommendation that you start with ETF\’s to get the hang of it. It will make shorting stocks much easier.

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Writen By : Larry Potter

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Small Cap And Big Cap Investing

To be honest, it doesn\’t matter what type of stocks we invest in. Common stock with small capitalization (defined as having market capitalization of $ 500 Million or less) and big capitalization (market capitalization of $ 5 Billion or more) can give you outsized returns provided that you bought it under fair value. But if you were only given one choice, which one would you prefer?

Small cap common stock historically returned a higher rate of return than its big cap counterpart. All household names that you are familiar with were a small cap stock. Microsoft, Dell, IBM, Johnson

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Using Stock Research And Stock Analysis Services

I consider my community a stock market research and education service that is offered to anyone interested in learning how to invest in the market for themselves. I do not manage money and I do not make specific stock picks for anyone in my community. I like to believe that this service is different from most of the stock market services offered on the internet because I aim to teach you how to invest in the market so you do not have to depend on my research for the rest of you trading life. I teach a method, a philosophy that I have developed so you can build a foundation for success; but you the investor must personalize your own system and perform your own due diligence and test what works for you and your trading characteristics and emotions.

It is easy to lead an individual to water but I can?t force this same individual to drink the water if they are thirsty. The same logic holds true for the stock market because I can show you how to invest successfully but you and ONLY YOU can make the proper decisions to show a profit at the end of the year.

I always wonder how many of my members take the opportunity to make money from our MSW Index stocks. This past weekend (12/3/05), I asked them to look in the mirror and be honest about their results over the past year (and their decisions since the rally was confirmed weekly on MSW on 10/22/05). Since we confirmed the rally on October 22, 2005 (on the weekly screen) our MSW Index stocks have been up over 17% as a group (this groups contains 18 stocks that were listed on the weekly screen on 10/22/05 ? very impressive results for so many stocks).

The Index has provided us with many buying opportunities at moving average support, consolidations and pivot point breakouts. Since the last weekly screen (November 19, 2005), the MSW Index has advanced by 6.25% with only two stocks falling for a loss (CRDN and FORD). Forward Industries was the largest loser, falling 6.13%. Our best gainer over the past couple of weeks was LMS which was up 23.25% on big time volume. Of the 26 stocks on the MSW Index, eight of them were up more than 10% while another three stocks were up at least 5% or more. Things move so fast in the market, it is tough to sit back and realize how successful our MSW Index stocks have performed in 2005 versus the rest of the market. A new page will be added as the year closes that will update the performance of the MSW Index versus the major market indices (NASDAQ, DOW, S

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Stocks Versus Bonds

A lot of investors may wonder if they should have invested in stocks or bonds or both. Both investment vehicles have their own merit in the investment world. However, the best investment choice depends on your investment horizon and your risk tolerance.

Bond is a certificate of debt issued by governments or corporations which will be repaid later at maturity. Bond investors get steady stream of interest while the principal will be paid at maturity. Currently, the ten year treasury bond yield 4.48 %. This guarantees investors that held the bond to maturity, an annual 4.48 % return on investment assuming a default risk of 0. Since treasury bond is backed by the United States government, it is safe to say that the default risk is nil. Treasury bond price fluctuates daily. But the potential capital gain from the price change is fairly minimal. As of Tuesday December 6th 2005, the 10 year treasury bond is priced at around par value of $ 100. Therefore, the investors\’ main return on investment is through the interest payment of the bond.

When investing in common stock, investors may be rewarded with either dividend payment or capital appreciation or both. Mainly, investors are aiming for capital appreciation profit when they invest in stocks. Historically, stock market indices has returned 10.5% since world war II. Stock investors may be exposed to a lot of risk due to the price volatility. When the company is doing poorly, investors may lose half or all of his principal. Bond investors do not have this problem if the debt issuer still survives.

In my opinion, investors are well served investing in stocks if they will not use the savings for more than five years. The reason is simple. Common stock gives a much larger return than bond. Investing in bond merely get you even with inflation. Some common stock can even give you that kind of return from dividend alone. If stock investors properly calculated the fair value of the common stock, the short-term volatility of stock will not matter. In the long run, stock will be traded close to their fair value.

There is no need for investors with five year investing horizon to avoid common stocks. While investing in treasury bond is theoretically safe, its return barely match inflation. In other words, investing in treasury bond will not make us richer.

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Writen By : Hari Wibowo

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What Is A

Do you have a nemesis stock? Don\’t laugh, just about every good trader/investor I know has one particular stock/index/commodity or what have you that just drives him or her nuts. I\’m sure you do too.

Just about every time you try and trade it, the stock tosses it right back in my face and you\’re lucky to get out even. More times than not you take a small loss and then wonder \”what was that all about??\”

We don\’t have the scientific proof that tells us what that\’s all about. We don\’t have any deep insights for you on the topic. We just know that it happens and it\’s a real phenomenon.

The best thing to do when you come across a stock or ETF that just constantly confounds you is to ignore it. Don\’t play with it. Don\’t get your pride all up in a huff and demand to yourself that you defeat this thing, it will eat you alive. There are ten thousand publicly traded companies out there, why on earth would you constantly go to the one that gives you fits?

More times than not it\’s a pride thing. We can\’t accept being defeated. Some of us try and hone our skills by trading the biggest challenge to us. But in all honesty we\’ve done both of these things, letting our pride get in the way, and trying to challenge our own skills. We\’ve lost on most accounts.

If you have a particular nemesis, avoid it. If you are constantly wrong about the direction of say the techs, then don\’t trade them. If you can never get a handle on oil, avoid it. There are too many places where you can consistently get the trends right, and following something that you know
and are good at is many times more enjoyable than kicking your chair and throwing things at your monitor. Don\’t laugh, you\’ve done it, we all have! Avoid the headaches, focus on the stuff that works for you. It\’s a whole lot less stressful.

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Writen By : Larry Potter

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